Robust Prioritization Framework for Transport Infrastructure Adaptation Investments under Uncertainty of Climate Change

Abstract

To create and sustain resilient infrastructure systems, decision makers must consider a changing climate in their design and maintenance planning. However, significant barriers exist to constrain the understanding and implementation of climate change considerations, including the inherent uncertainty in climate change model projections. The high level of uncertainty related to climate projections makes the engineering planning process difficult because it is impossible to fully know future climate conditions relative to historical design standards. This paper seeks to address this challenge by introducing a new method for calculating robust decisions rooted in existing decision theory and uncertainty. This paper details the framework used for the new decision-making process and describes how the framework can provide guidance about achieving low-regret adaptation options for resilient road infrastructure design. A case study of a province in Mexico illustrates the application of the framework to an actual transportation planning effort.