Fifty-Year Resilience Strategies for Coastal Communities at Risk for Tsunamis

Abstract

Low-lying coastal communities along plate boundary subduction zones face a high risk of deadly earthquakes, tsunamis, and coastal subsidence. To effectively manage the damaging impact of these events, coastal communities must develop a new vision for their postdisaster existence. New 50-year resilience master plans that strategically strengthen or relocate existing critical infrastructure, provide for clear evacuation routes, and modify land use need to acknowledge the economic realities of these coastal communities whose economies are typically based on their proximity to the ocean. The transition period outlined in the master plan must not only maintain the economic, cultural, and social viability of the community but also must embrace new modern urban development and its associated costs. This paper uses Seaside, Oregon, as the model because of its status as having Oregon’s highest tsunami risk. Three scenarios are presented: (1) maintaining the status quo, in which the likelihood of a postdisaster recovery is low; (2) limited resilience, emphasizing protection of the most vulnerable population; and (3) high resilience, which requires building a new local town center protected from earthquakes and tsunamis.