Self-Organized Criticality in Wildfire Time Series from China

Abstract

Time-series data from the 2003 to 2013 actual wildfire records were analyzed. The evidence of self-organization criticality (SOC) for wildfire time series in three areas (Guizhou Province, Chenzhou City, and the Greater Khingan Mountains) was analyzed. The detrended fluctuation analysis of the wildfire time series shows long-term correlations. The probability distribution of the number of wildfires per day follows a power law. Therefore, the time series for wildfires that contain small fires seem consistent with SOC. The formation mechanism of SOC was analyzed. This paper describes a comparative analysis of the characteristics of SOC for wildfires before and after an ice storm in 2008. The relationship between very large wildfires (with a large number of wildfires per day) and small wildfires (with a low number of wildfires per day) was analyzed. These results will improve the theoretical and practical in-depth understanding of the SOC of wildfires.