Shelter Seeking Plans of Tuscaloosa Residents for a Future Tornado Event

Abstract

he enhanced Fujita scale category 4 (EF4) Tuscaloosa, Alabama, tornado on 27 April 2011 produced 64 fatalities along its 130-km track. Hybrid survey/interviews were conducted with a sample of 211 Tuscaloosa-area residents to determine how the 27 April tornado might change future shelter-seeking plans. Despite a history of tornadoes in the area, only 47% of Tuscaloosa residents had shelter plans in place prior to 27 April, but 62% intend to change their shelter plans or have shelters plans for the future. Changes in shelter-seeking plans were divided into four groups and discussed according to commonalities. Logistic regression with demographic variables was then used to predict those likely to have shelter plans before 27 April and those likely to change their shelter plans in the future. Among these variables, residents over age 55 [odds ratio (OR) 8.9, 95%; confidence interval (CI): 2.167?36.352] and those having a bachelor's degree (OR 5.1, CI: 1.342?19.316) were more likely to have had shelter plans before 27 April. The most significant variable indicating a change in future shelter-seeking plans is being Hispanic/Latino (OR 5.2, CI: 1.753?15.465). These results may assist National Weather Service (NWS) personnel, broadcast meteorologists, emergency managers, and city planners with the development of targeted warning communication tactics and safety strategies for a future tornado event.