A 5-yr Climatology of Tornado False Alarms

Abstract

uring 2008 approximately 75% of tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) were false alarms. This study investigates some of the climatological trends in the issuance of false alarms and highlights several factors that impact false-alarm ratio (FAR) statistics. All tornadoes and tornado warnings issued across the continental United States between 2000 and 2004 were analyzed, and the data were sorted by hour of the day, month of the year, geographical region and weather forecast office (WFO), the number of tornadoes observed on a day in which a false alarm was issued, distance of the warned area from the nearest NWS radar, county population density, and county area. Analysis of the tornado false-alarm data identified six specific trends. First, the FAR was highest during nonpeak storm periods, such as during the night and during the winter and late summer. Second, the FAR was strongly tied to the number of tornadoes warned per day. Nearly one-third of all false alarms were issued on days when no tornadoes were confirmed within the WFO?s county warning area. Third, the FAR varied with distance from radar, with significantly lower estimates found beyond 150 km from radar. Fourth, the FAR varied with population density. For warnings within 50 km of an NWS radar, FAR increased with population density; however, for warnings beyond 150 km from radar, FAR decreased regardless of population density. Fifth, the FAR also varied as a function of county size. The FAR was generally highest for the smallest counties; the FAR was ~80% for all counties less than 1000 km2 regardless of distance from radar. Finally, the combined effects of distance from radar, population density, and county size led to significant variability across geographic regions.