Spatiotemporal Snowfall Variability in the Lake Michigan Region: How is Warming Affecting Wintertime Snowfall?

Abstract

his study has investigated the spatiotemporal structure and changes in Lake Michigan snowfall for the period 1950?2013. With data quality caveats acknowledged, a larger envelope of stations was included than in previous studies to explore the data using time series analysis, principal component analysis, and geographic information systems. Results indicate warming in recent decades, a near-dearth of serial correlation, midwinter dependence on teleconnection patterns, strong sensitivity of snowfall to temperature, peak snowfall variability and dependence on temperature within the lake-effect belt, an increasing fraction of seasonal snowfall occurring from December to February, and temporal behavior consistent with the previously reported trend reversal in snowfall.