An Automated System to Quantify Aircraft Encounters with Convectively Induced Turbulence over Europe and the Northeast Atlantic

Abstract

t is well known that encounters with moderate or severe turbulence can lead to passenger and crew injuries and incur high insurance costs for airlines. Atmospheric convection is thought to induce a significant proportion of turbulence experienced by commercial aircraft, but its relative importance over Europe and the northeastern Atlantic Ocean area has not yet been quantified in a systematic way. In this study, a new approach is developed to automatically detect turbulent events associated with convective sources. Observations of convection over Europe and the northeastern Atlantic were obtained from the Met Office Arrival Time Detection system (ATDnet) and from Meteosat Second Generation satellite imagery. The system is run for all in situ reports of turbulence received from a commercial airline for two 6-month periods (summer 2013 and summer 2014). It is found that, as a monthly average, 14% of all aircraft encounters with turbulence occur in the proximity of a convective storm. These findings are interpreted and discussed together with the limitations of the system and observations that were used in this study.