Monthly Changes in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide at Mauna Loa: Possible Asymmetric Effects of Warming

Abstract

Changes in the intra-annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, are investigated by comparing monthly observations to the mean value of each year?s waxing and waning phase of the cycle. Results identify a previously unnoticed change between 1965 and 2004 during October in which October concentrations declined relative to the cycle?s mean value. Results confirm a previously noted change in spring (April), but unlike previous analyses, this result indicates that between 1965 and 2004 April concentrations rose relative to the cycle?s mean value. The timing of these changes is not caused by commonly recognized patterns of atmospheric circulation, such as ENSO events. Instead, these changes may be generated by asymmetric effects of warming. Warming in early spring may increase heterotrophic respiration relative to net primary production while warming in late summer/early fall may enhance net primary production relative to heterotrophic respiration.