A GRAPHICAL PREDICTION MODEL INCORPORATING A FORM OF NONADIABATIC HEATING

Abstract

A two-level graphical prediction model is extended so as to include the effects of heating of cold air by relatively warm water. Orographic effects are also included in the model. The model is applied to a case of a major storm development in the Gulf of Alaska attended by a strong outbreak of Arctic air from the Alaskan mainland. In this case the effects of nonadiabatic heating and orography appeared to be significant and in a direction which tended to improve the forecast.