Risk Transition and Global Warming

Abstract

Economic development results in the gradual substitution of the traditional risks largely related to rural poverty with the modern risks characterizing industrialization and agricultural modernization. In the world today, modern technologies and their risks are being introduced during earlier phases of development than in the past. Consequently, undue risks of both types often exist side by side. To reflect the actual impact of new technologies in developing countries, therefore, risk assessors should consider interactions that develop because of this risk overlap. In addition, better techniques for net risk assessment need to be found because significant risk lowering and risk raising occur in developing countries. Although each country will develop in its own fashion, the risk transition framework can be useful for comparison and analysis. A brief illustration of its use is given for evaluating alternative policies in developing countries for response to global warming.