Robust Reliability of Projects with Activity-Duration Uncertainty

Abstract

Today's projects suffer from high uncertainty, great demand for accelerated speed, and severe scarcity of attention of the project manager. At the same time, the schedules of today's projects are expected to be more reliable than ever. This paper presents a new concept for improving the reliability of a project schedule suffering from uncertainty in the duration of its activities. The paper shows that the technique for applying the new concept requires minimal information, incorporates subjective information, is simple to use, and assists in the preparation of project schedules at a desirable level of reliability. Specific examples demonstrate the use of the technique for: (1) calculating the reliability of the project schedule; (2) enhancing the reliability of the project schedule; (3) reducing project duration without diminishing its reliability; and (4) examining how overlapping of project activities affects its reliability.