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contributor authorByunghyun Kim
contributor authorBrett F. Sanders
date accessioned2017-05-08T22:32:52Z
date available2017-05-08T22:32:52Z
date copyrightMay 2016
date issued2016
identifier other49162616.pdf
identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/82406
description abstractDam safety programs are informed by numerical model solutions of dam-break flood depth, extent, and timing that are uncertain owing to an imperfect mathematical and numerical representation of system dynamics as well as uncertain model parameters and input data, yet model uncertainty is rarely reported. The most extreme and damaging events of greatest interest are also the most infrequent to occur and, thus, seldom studied and poorly understood from a model uncertainty perspective. Here an extraordinary event is considered that occurred in Gangneung, South Korea, on August 31, 2002, when Typhoon Rusa dropped nearly 90 cm of rainfall over a 24 h period, causing two dams in tributary valleys to fail only a few moments apart. A two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic flood model is developed using the best available data, calibrated, and validated, and uncertainty is systematically examined. Sources of uncertainty include topographic and bathymetric data, breach geometry data, precipitation data, storm surge data, resistance parameters, and structural model errors that represent deficiencies in the flood model formulation. An uncalibrated solution yields a flood height root-mean square error (RMSE) of 0.4 m and a flood-extent agreement of 86% when the best available measurements are used as data input, including precipitation. Additionally, the calibration of resistance parameters reduces the flood height RMSE to 0.33 m, which is close to the estimated uncertainty in flood height measurements (0.2 m) and RMSE of the best available topographic data (0.2 m). Results show that many factors contribute to solution uncertainty and in different ways depending on whether the focus is flood height, flood extent, or flood discharge and timing, and strategies to reduce uncertainties are presented.
publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
titleDam-Break Flood Model Uncertainty Assessment: Case Study of Extreme Flooding with Multiple Dam Failures in Gangneung, South Korea
typeJournal Paper
journal volume142
journal issue5
journal titleJournal of Hydraulic Engineering
identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001097
treeJournal of Hydraulic Engineering:;2016:;Volume ( 142 ):;issue: 005
contenttypeFulltext


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