Dynamic Management of Risk Contingency in Complex Design-Build Projects

Abstract

Contingency budgets are commonly used by managers to respond to uncertainty and control the project within the original cost and schedule targets. However, a variety of project participants with conflicting interests creates tensions when it comes to managing the risk contingency escrow account during the project development, and divergences often arise over the need for either retaining the unspent contingencies (for future risk and improved facility) or releasing it as a profit. With the purpose of studying the dynamics and main influences involved in the risk contingency management process of a design-build (DB) project, a system dynamics (SD) contingency management model is proposed to simulate the decision-making scenarios, under different project conditions and behavioral pressures of senior managers and owners. The model suggests that an aggressive proactive risk management practice might be an effective policy for managing the contingency budget in a complex engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) project.