Applying Method of Moments to Model the Reliability of Deteriorating Performance to Asphalt Pavement under Freeze-Thaw Cycles in Cold Regions

Abstract

Accurate deterioration models play a critical role in designing and managing transportation infrastructure. Regular models simply consider loading factor and its relative uncertainties. However, climate and environment impacts are not considered, or are just used as certain variables. Thermal cracks and moisture distresses are principal distress forms in cold regions. In this study, a freeze-thaw (F-T) cycle test was used to simulate the influence of adverse weather conditions in cold regions, like moisture and temperature impact. Then method of moments was applied to analyze the pavement reliability functions with various uncertainties. The analytical results showed that the resilient modulus of asphalt concrete mixture declined under F-T cycles. Consequently, pavement structure capacity was reduced. The results also illustrated that the reliability method was capable of accommodating uncertainties in pavement parameters. The sensitivity analysis indicated that F-T cycles had a significant impact on estimating reliability, especially with a large coefficient of variance. The larger the coefficient of variance, the faster the decline in reliability. Reliability analysis results indicate that a decrease in the variability of F-T cycles can significantly increase the estimated reliability. As a result, F-T cycles with uncertainty harm the pavement loading capacity, which should not be neglected in actual engineering. This paper also proposes some instructions for simulating pavement performance models.