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contributor authorWenpeng Wang
contributor authorYuanfang Chen
contributor authorStefan Becker
contributor authorBo Liu
date accessioned2017-05-08T22:11:58Z
date available2017-05-08T22:11:58Z
date copyrightDecember 2015
date issued2015
identifier other39773872.pdf
identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/73296
description abstractDetecting trends in hydrometerological data through the commonly used Mann-Kendall test is misleading in the presence of data autocorrelation. Autocorrelation seriously interferes with type I errors and power of trend detection. To mitigate this effect, the authors introduce a variance correction prewhitening method. It addresses two important issues that lacked appropriate attention in the past application of trend-free prewhitening method: inflationary variance of slope estimator and deflationary serial variance. After serial and slope variances correction, the new method keeps a better balance between maintaining a low type I error and a relatively strong power of trend detection. In comparison, other methods for the same purpose only address one of these two characteristics. The new method bears some resemblance to the block-bootstrap method; however, it is superior in its simplicity for implementation. Case studies reveal that uncertainties arising from autocorrelation are substantial. Applying more than one test is helpful to interpret results with uncertainties information. The new method provides a robust choice to this strategy.
publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
titleVariance Correction Prewhitening Method for Trend Detection in Autocorrelated Data
typeJournal Paper
journal volume20
journal issue12
journal titleJournal of Hydrologic Engineering
identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001234
treeJournal of Hydrologic Engineering:;2015:;Volume ( 020 ):;issue: 012
contenttypeFulltext


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