Fuzzy-Based Model for Predicting Failure of Oil Pipelines

Abstract

Oil and gas pipelines transport millions of dollars of goods worldwide every day. Even though they are the safest way to transport petroleum products, pipelines do still sometimes fail, generating hazardous and irreparable environmental damages. Many models have been developed in the last decade to predict pipeline failures and conditions. However, most of these models were limited to one failure type, such as corrosion failure, or relied mainly on expert opinions. The objective of this paper is to develop a fuzzy-based model to predict the failure type of oil pipelines using historical data of pipeline accidents. The model was able to satisfactorily predict pipeline failures due to mechanical, operational, corrosion, third-party, and natural hazards with an average percent validity of 83%. This research contributes to the body of knowledge by developing a robust failure type prediction model for oil pipelines using a fuzzy approach. The model will assist pipeline operators to predict the expected failure type(s) in order to take the necessary preventive actions.