Analysis of Traffic Accident Reconstruction Uncertainty

Abstract

There are many uncertain factors in road traffic accident. It is necessary to consider the uncertainty influence of these factors by random theory to improve the analysis veracity. In order to improve the precision and reliability of traffic accident analysis and reconstruction, random theory and the probabilistic perturbation method were introduced in this work for the uncertainty analysis of traffic accident because of the existing of uncertainty factors universally. The confidence interval and confidence of parameters were obtained expediently by the uncertainty analysis, and the precision of traffic accident analysis or reconstruction was improved. A typical vehicle-pedestrian accident was investigated by the method proposed, and the calculated result is contrasted with Monte Carlo simulation method, which proves that the method adopted in the paper is accurate and effective.