Probabilistic Analysis of the Degradation Evolution of Stone Wall Cladding Directly Adhered to the Substrate

Abstract

Environmental factors directly affect a building’s performance and durability. They are particularly detrimental in the case of building envelope materials and systems because these tend to exhibit a large exposed area and relatively narrow thickness. Therefore, tools are needed to model degradation and provide an insight into its occurrence and its relationship with the environmental factors that have the worst effect. In this paper, the degradation of stone wall cladding directly adhered to the substrate is estimated based on the evaluation of the characteristics of 140 wall cladding systems inspected in Lisbon, Portugal. Because it is a complex phenomenon, a probabilistic analysis is developed using multinomial logistic regression. The analysis focuses on the environmental factors that most influence the overall degradation of the façades (condition level). Probabilistic patterns are thus obtained for the evolution over time of each condition level according to their exposure level to outdoor environmental conditions.