Identifying Contributions of Climate Change and Human Activity to Changes in Runoff Using Epoch Detection and Hydrologic Simulation

Abstract

Runoff in major rivers in China has been decreasing in recent decades. The attribution of hydrologic variability to human activity or climate change is a challenging problem and an active research area. In this study, a sequential cluster analysis method was used to detect undisturbed parts of the record for the Kuyehe River catchment in China. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land-surface model was calibrated and verified using observed hydrometeorological data from a period with relatively little human-induced disturbance. The calibrated VIC model was then used to simulate natural runoff during the human-regulated period. Results indicate that the recorded runoff at Wenjiachuan station had significant decline trend of