Uncertainty Reduction in Multi-Evaluator Decision Making

Abstract

When selecting construction design-build teams, subjective multi-evaluator decision making can be controversial and can lead to project delay, loss of public trust, and increased legal fees. This paper introduces a mathematical algorithm that supports multi-evaluator selection decisions by detecting and reducing the effect of possible uncertainty in the scores given by the evaluators. The algorithm was coded and tested using several scenarios. The study results show that the model is robust and capable of extracting the maximum knowledge from the scores given by evaluators with varying degrees of expertise. Simulation results show that the proposed model performed better than the simple averaging method 89% of the time. The outcome of this research provides the decision maker with a justified basis to proceed with the selection decision.