Estimation of Time for Wenchuan Earthquake Reconstruction in China

Abstract

Time is considered extremely urgent in China’s Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction. However, little research has been undertaken on estimating the time needed for reconstruction in China, especially for this specific reconstruction. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the time-cost relationship for the Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction. Both the Bromilow’s time-cost (BTC) model and the Elman network (EN) model have been developed to predict the time of Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction projects. Data have been obtained from 72 completed construction projects in the six cities that were seriously affected by the major Wenchuan earthquake. The result from the BTC model has been compared with that from the EN model to determine which one is more accurate. The results show that the EN model provides a more accurate time prediction for Wenchuan earthquake reconstruction than the BTC model does, though the BTC model is more suitable for application in practice. It is also shown that the proposed models are both useful for estimating the duration of reconstruction projects.