Modeling Construction Occupational Demand: Case of Hong Kong

Abstract

Appropriate training can only be developed if training needs for specific skills are carefully identified. This paper, further to an aggregate model developed previously, aims to forecast the occupational share of the aggregate manpower demand for the construction industry of Hong Kong. The forecast, based on existing manpower statistics, is divided into two levels: broad occupations and detailed occupations. The broad occupational demand forecasting model is formulated using a time-series regression analysis to derive the relationship between the occupational share and the construction output cycle, technology, and various work-mix variables; whereas exponential smoothing technique is used to forecast the share of detailed occupations. This occupational demand estimation can provide solid information to facilitate manpower planning. It enables the policymakers to foresee the trends of occupational manpower demand and formulate policies and training and retraining programs tailored to deal effectively with the industry’s human resource requirements in this critical sector of the economy. Although the study focuses on developing models for the Hong Kong construction labor market, the adopted methodology can be applied in other labor markets to develop such models for manpower planning.