Empirical Modeling Methodologies for Construction

Abstract

The paper provides a review of empirical modeling and its application within construction engineering and management. The scope of application and trends in use of this approach are first assessed, and the potential for its further development is identified. This is followed by an examination of the key components of empirical modeling, namely: the structure and operation of the model and the scheme used in its development. The paper then provides a rigorous methodology that must be followed to ensure the validity and value of the end model, covering the steps: strategizing; data collation and assessment; model development; model evaluation and final selection; final validation; and implementation. The methodology is designed to cater for all forms of empirical modeling including the procedurally more demanding development algorithms that have become available in recent years, such as simulated evolution. Overall, the paper is designed to provide researchers embarking on an empirical modeling study with an overview of when it is appropriate to use this approach, what type of system to adopt, and how to ensure development of a successful end product.