| description abstract | The national bridge inventory (NBI) system, a database of visual inspection records that tallies the condition of bridge elements, is used by transportation agencies to manage the rehabilitation of the aging U.S. highway infrastructure. However, further use of the database to forecast degradation, and thus improve maintenance strategies, is limited due to its complexity, nonlinear relationship, unbalanced inspection records, subjectivity, and missing data. In this study, soft computing methods were applied to develop damage prediction models for bridge abutment walls using the NBI database. The methods were multilayer perceptron network, radial basis function network, support vector machine, supervised self-organizing map, fuzzy neural network, and ensembles of neural networks. An ensemble of neural networks with a novel data organization scheme and voting process was the most efficient model, identifying damage with an accuracy of 86%. Bridge deterioration curves were derived using the prediction models and compared with inspection data. The results show that well developed damage prediction models can be an asset for efficient rehabilitation management of existing bridges as well as for the design of new ones. | |
