Simple Estimation of Prevalence of Hortonian Flow in New York City Watersheds

Abstract

This study was a statistical evaluation of the prevalence of infiltration excess runoff (i.e., Hortonian flow) for undeveloped areas within New York City (NYC) watersheds. Identifying the hydrological processes generating runoff is central to developing watershed management strategies for protecting water quality. Fifteen-minute rainfall data from East Sidney, N.Y. (1971–2002) were used as maximum observed intensities. Maximum exceedance analyses were performed on a monthly basis to investigate seasonal rainfall intensity trends. Hortonian flow was assumed to occur whenever the rainfall intensity exceeded the soil permeability. Soil permeabilities were obtained from the U.S. Natural Resource Conservation Service soil survey. Results show that Hortonian flow is unlikely to occur anywhere for events smaller than the 3-year 15-min event. Only for the summer months, May–August, is Hortonian flow expected for 15-min intensities of <10-year magnitude. However, the summer results are overpredicted by this analysis because these months typically have the driest soil conditions and thus the highest infiltration capacity. This analysis concludes that infiltration excess runoff is not a dominant runoff process in undeveloped portions of NYC watersheds.