System Risk Curves: Probabilistic Performance Scenarios for Highway Networks Subject to Earthquake Damage

Abstract

Monte Carlo simulation techniques are used with bridge fragility curves to evaluate bridge damage in terms of a bridge damage index, and highway network link damage in terms of a link damage index. Static, user-equilibrium analysis is used to evaluate total transportation network delay due to seismically induced damage inflicted on the Los Angeles and Orange County State highway and freeway network. A method of regional seismic risk analysis for highway systems is developed based on the definition of scenario earthquakes representing the seismic hazard of the region, and hazard-consistent probabilities are computed for each scenario. The final result of these efforts is a transportation system risk curve.