Climate Adaptation Matrix Concept for Multidisciplinary Community Resilience in a Changing Climate

Abstract

Coastal structures are currently built based on standards that rely on stationary loading assumptions and do not account for the changes in hurricanes due to climate change. As a result, buildings and infrastructure are susceptible to future loadings in excess of what they were originally designed. The resulting structural damage would lead to a lack of stability for a community by causing substantial losses and subsequent outmigration of residents if not addressed. This study presents a methodology for climate-resilient adaptation of communities and proposes a systematic process to evaluate the social impact in terms of communitywide population outmigration over time. The analysis focuses on changes in wind velocity due to climate change (global warming) but the methodology is extensible to sea level rise (SLR) and other climate-induced threats. The structural damage analysis takes into account the cumulative effects of preceding hurricanes by considering factors such as building recovery time and the interval between successive hurricane events. The recovery process for residential buildings and the probability of population outmigration are assessed based on the extent of structural damage incurred and demographics. Resilience analyses are conducted, incorporating various levels of adaptation actions aimed at improving structural performance, which allows disaggregating building performance with respect to community-level outmigration goals. This process leads to the development of a climate adaptation matrix (CAM), which accounts for uncertainties associated with future hurricanes and specifies community goals. The concept is to provide decision support so that community stakeholders can implement the recommended actions (or some portion thereof) to achieve community-level goals in line with the CAM.