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contributor authorWeidong Wu
contributor authorYujie Lin
contributor authorShuai Geng
contributor authorHonglin Lu
contributor authorJuan Yao
date accessioned2024-12-24T09:58:34Z
date available2024-12-24T09:58:34Z
date copyright8/1/2024 12:00:00 AM
date issued2024
identifier otherJPCFEV.CFENG-4700.pdf
identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4298059
description abstractAs the lifeblood of national energy, oil and gas pipelines are vulnerable to corrosion, third-party damage, and natural disasters. Among these, third-party damage accidents have a high probability and serious consequences. However, China lacks a mature and unified pipeline accident database, making it difficult to assess and manage the risk of such incidents. To address this issue, this paper identifies 20 key risk factors for third-party damage to oil and gas pipelines through literature and case studies. The paper then proposes a multistate probabilistic assessment model using the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL), interpretative structural modeling method (ISM), Røed method, and Bayesian network (BN). Real case studies demonstrate that the model not only predicts the probability of third-party damage risks but also clearly identifies key influencing factors and causal chains in the risk system. This provides a new approach for assessing third-party damage risks to oil and gas pipelines and offers a scientific basis for decision-making in managing actual pipelines. The high probability and serious consequences of third-party damage accidents of oil and gas pipelines have caused certain hidden dangers to social security, environment, and economy, and put forward higher requirements for pipeline operation and management. In order to scientifically manage and effectively control the occurrence of third-party damage accidents of oil and gas pipelines, this paper, in the absence of an applicable pipeline failure database. Based on expert knowledge, a model that can be used for the assessment and prediction of third-party damage probability of oil and gas pipelines is constructed. Through the application of real cases, it is shown that the model can be used not only to predict the probability of third-party damage of oil and gas pipelines, but also to identify the key influencing factors and key causal chains leading to third-party damage. The results of the study not only provide theoretical support for pipeline management in reality, but also provide new ideas for risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines that lack actual data.
publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
titleMultistate Probabilistic Assessment of Third-Party Damage Risk for Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on DEMATEL-ISM-Røed-BN
typeJournal Article
journal volume38
journal issue4
journal titleJournal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
identifier doi10.1061/JPCFEV.CFENG-4700
journal fristpage04024020-1
journal lastpage04024020-15
page15
treeJournal of Performance of Constructed Facilities:;2024:;Volume ( 038 ):;issue: 004
contenttypeFulltext


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