Effect of Agglomeration of Producer Services on Asynchronous Development of Industrialization and Urbanization: Provincial Panel Data of China

Abstract

Industrialization and urbanization are significant facets of modernization. The asynchronous development of the two is closely related to the agglomeration of producer services. This paper constructed an asynchrony index to describe the development gap between industrialization and urbanization. Various spatial weight matrices were introduced to test the spatial autocorrelation of the asynchrony index. Applying spatial econometric models, we explored the impact of agglomeration of producer services on the asynchrony index from two aspects: diversified agglomeration (DA) and specialized agglomeration (SA). The following conclusions are drawn from the empirical findings, which are based on data from 31 Chinese provinces between 2008 and 2019: (1) the asynchrony of industrialization and urbanization exhibits the spatial autocorrelation increasing over time; (2) SA exacerbates the asynchrony, while DA alleviates the asynchrony; (3) SA exerts greater impacts in highly industrialized and urbanized regions, while DA exerts greater effects in lowly industrialized and urbanized regions; and (4) agricultural dependence and infrastructure level weaken the impacts of SA and strengthen the impacts of DA. Income level weakens the impacts of both SA and DA. The results of this study provide a reference for policymakers to adjust the industrial layout in a targeted manner to regulate the asynchronous nature of modernization development. Peace and development are the themes of the world today. Most developing countries are experiencing or about to experience industrialization and urbanization. The world reality indicates that the two are not always synchronized in countries due to resource and cultural differences. Producer services not only improve agricultural and industrial production efficiency but also bring population agglomeration effects like other industries. In the era of informatization, the producer services exert a profound impact on industrialization and urbanization through two agglomeration modes. This technical paper quantifies the asynchrony between industrialization and urbanization using data from 31 provinces in China and verifies the opposite effects of two agglomeration modes on asynchrony. In cities with different levels of industrialization and urbanization, cities with higher or lower agricultural dependence, and cities with higher or lower infrastructure levels, the impact direction of the two agglomeration modes shows stability, while the magnitude varies. Cities with higher per capita income tend to develop into consumer cities, where industrialization should lag behind urbanization.