Modeling Pavement Deterioration and Pavement Maintenance Management Optimization Model

Abstract

Pavement management systems (PMS) are considered to be crucial tools for agencies in managing their pavement networks and using accessible budgets in an appropriate technique. In this paper, a newly developed condition rating index [modified pavement condition rating (MPCR)] was used to assess the current and future pavement performance. The pavement future performance in terms of MPCR was predicted using two models: (1) a stochastic Markov chain model, and (2) an artificial neural network (ANN) model. In Markov chain modeling, the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) database was used to develop the transition probability matrix (TPM). An ANN model for future pavement performance prediction was developed based on the same LTPP data. For both models, 245 data points from the LTPP data were used for deterioration modeling. Both models were verified using LTPP data and data obtained from the General Authority of Roads, Bridges and Land Transport (GARBLT), Egypt. The Markov chain and ANN results were compared. The Markov chain model performed better than the ANN model, with a coefficient of determination, R2, of 0.9 and RMS Error (RMSE) of 0.1268. the ANN model yielded an R2 of only 0.53 and a RMSE of 0.2205. Increasing the number data points did not lead to a significant improvement in the ANN model accuracy. A multiobjective particle swarm optimization (PSO) model is used for fund allocation to maximize the average pavement condition and minimize the maintenance cost. The developed optimization model was tested on two benchmark optimization problems to ensure its validity for real-life applications. The developed optimization model was used on a network of roads and was found to be capable of generating optimal or near-optimal solutions for the maintenance decisions to keep the pavement in good workable condition. As such, the current study presents a comprehensive development tackling different modules of a pavement management system.