Evaluation of the Forecast Performance for Week-2 Winter Surface Air Temperature from the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A)

Abstract

The forecast skill for week-2 wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) over the Northern Hemisphere by the Model for Prediction Across Scales–Atmosphere (MPAS-A) is evaluated and compared with operational forecast systems that participate in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S). An intercomparison of the MPAS against the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) model and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model was performed using 10-yr reforecasts. Comparing the forecast skill for SAT and atmospheric circulation anomalies at a lead of 2 weeks among the three models, the MPAS shows skill lower than the ECMWF model but higher than the CMA model. The gap in skills between the MPAS model and CMA model is not as large as that between the ECMWF model and MPAS model. Additionally, an intercomparison of the MPAS model against 10 S2S models is presented by using real-time forecasts since 2016 stored in the S2S database. The results show that the MPAS model has forecast skill for week-2 to week-4 wintertime SAT comparable to that in most S2S models. The MPAS model tends to be at an intermediate level compared to current operational forecast models.