Deaggregation of Wind Speeds for Hurricane Scenarios Used in Risk-Informed Resilience Assessment of Coastal Communities

Abstract

Coastal cities in the east and southeast regions of the US have seen significant population growth and economic development in the last 2 decades. As a result, urban infrastructure, populations, and economies are becoming increasingly vulnerable to hurricane-driven hazards. Criteria for wind design in national standards are intended specifically for the design and performance assessment of individual buildings and other facilities for life safety. They are not adequate for assessing community resilience because hurricane winds are spatially nonuniform. Although scenario-based approaches to representing hurricane demands are more useful in community performance assessment because the distinct features of various hurricane scenarios and their impact on a community can be captured, they are not tied to a specific hazard level. This study introduces a new method for systematically identifying a set of hurricane scenarios corresponding to a stipulated return period (RP) for resilience assessment of coastal communities using a deaggregation approach, which establishes a connection that has not existed previously between hurricane scenarios and the building regulatory process. A community patterned after Miami, Florida, was used to demonstrate the proposed hazard deaggregation and damage analysis. Hurricane scenario events that are dominant contributors to the stipulated RP events, coupled with fragility models of engineered buildings, were used to identify building damage patterns and form an improved basis for risk-informed decision making.