Geographic Information System-Based Seismic Risk Assessment for Dubai, UAE: A Step toward Resilience and Preparedness

Abstract

Being in proximity of high-seismicity regions, Dubai and United Arab Emirates (UAE) in general are characterized by a high level of seismic hazard uncertainty. This study presents a seismic risk quantification for the existing building stock in Dubai. It provides the much needed and critical input toward enhanced seismic resilience and preparedness. Five archetype buildings ranging from 2 to 16 floors were meticulously modeled to represent the most common buildings stock. The seismic performance of the reference buildings was assessed using incremental dynamic analysis (IDA). The IDA was performed as per a methodology from current standards and far-field ground motion records. Fragility curves were developed for three damage states, namely Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP). At the maximum considered earthquake (MCE) level, the economic losses due to structural damage were estimated based on accepted standard current values. Human losses and injuries were projected using a methodology from current standards. Finally, corresponding seismic risk maps were generated. The seismic risk maps illustrate that the estimated number of fatalities and major injuries at the MCE level is generally low.