Development of Modified Tank Model for Reservoir Storage Prediction: Case Study of Huanggang Reservoir, Fujian, China

Abstract

Reservoirs are important water conservancy constructions for flood prevention and disaster reduction in a region. The prediction of reservoir storage is a key task to ensure its safe management and operation. In this study, an innovative modified tank model was developed for the reservoir storage prediction affected by precipitation, natural drainage, and human flood adjustment factors. By transforming the conventional tank model property from a rectangle to a trapezoid as the model characters and incorporating the influence of human flood adjustment factors, the accuracy and especially the physical meaning of the tank model to predict the storage are improved. The case of Huanggang Reservoir, Fujian, China, was used to validate the model prediction ability. The results showed that the average relative error of the improved model was reduced by 2.87%–14.94% compared with the original model. In addition, the value of the average relative error of the optimized tank model during the typhoon season decreased by 3.93%–23.48%, thereby providing a more accurate prediction of water storage in the flood season.