Probabilistic Estimates of Tsunami Risk for Small Craft Marinas

Abstract

Since the 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami, California small craft marinas have sustained over $100 million in total damage from tsunami events. Surveys conducted after the 2006 Kuril Islands and 2011 Japan tsunamis indicated that the mooring systems (e.g., cleats and pile guides) responsible for keeping the vessels and floating docks in place during an event are susceptible to failure. The aim of this paper is to present a risk framework that can be used by decision makers to assess future tsunami risks to small craft marinas. Here, the coupling of high-resolution numerical modeling and an existing statistical framework is extended to include observed damage states for structural elements. When applied to one small craft marina (in Noyo River Harbor), our methodology was able to replicate likely failure, which occurred well below previously identified damage thresholds. The results suggest infrastructure age and condition, in addition to the hazardous tsunami phenomenon, can contribute to cleat and pile guide failure.