Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability Considering the Future Climate: A Case Study along the Central West Coast of India

Abstract

An ever-increasing need to develop coastal infrastructure as well as continuously rising coastal population calls for a rigorous assessment of coastal vulnerability in many parts of the world. This study emphasized the need to use projected climate and socioeconomic data in place of historical information to evaluate the vulnerability of a given coast. A coastal vulnerability index was determined using historical as well as projected climate and socioeconomic conditions for two periods, one in the past (1979–2017) and one in the future (2017–2052). Projected wind, wave, and shoreline changes were simulated under a moderate global warming scenario, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5. The methodology was implemented for three different types of coastline, namely uninterrupted, naturally discontinuous, and artificially interrupted coastlines, located along the central west coast of India. The coastal vulnerability index was calculated with seven physical-geomorphologic and four socioeconomic indicators using an analytical hierarchical process. A comparison of the two periods showed that the vulnerability at all three coastal segments will increase in the future, calling for changed strategies by coastal ecosystem planners, stakeholders, and port authorities. The increasing vulnerability to physical and socioeconomic hazards points to adoption of a more serious approach to plan the coastal ecosystem in the future.