Evaluation of Security Measures to Mitigate the Effects of Bioterror Attacks on Buildings Using a System Dynamics Method

Abstract

This paper describes the use of a system dynamics (SD) computational method to evaluate initial designs or upgrades of security measures to protect a building and its occupants from bioterror attacks. The paper identifies variables to be modeled in regard to security measures, explains the SD model for use in decision making, and provides a detailed description of the steps needed to develop a meaningful framework for collecting the diverse types of data needed to apply a model of this type. Every attempt was made to obtain meaningful experimental, simulated, or surrogate data that could be used to model performance in quantitative terms, allowing comparisons to be made between potential security measures. Results are presented as time-histories of specific performance attributes of the building or as the influence of different levels of mitigation strategies over a selected time period. Results show that different types of mitigation strategies are indicated for different levels of protection and resource availability. This information can be used to inform design and operation decisions in a risk-averse and resource-constrained building industry.