Relative importance of internal climate variability versus anthropogenic climate change in global climate change

Abstract

To better understand the role of internal climate variability (ICV) in climate change impact studies, this study quantifies the importance of ICV (defined as the inter-member variability of a single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE)) in relation to the anthropogenic climate change (ACC, defined as multi-model ensemble mean) in global and regional climate change using a criterion of Time of Emergence (ToE). The uncertainty of the estimated ToE is specifically investigated by using three SMILEs to estimate the ICV. The results show that using 1921-1940 as a baseline period, the annual mean precipitation ACC is expected to emerge within this century over extra-tropical regions as well as along the equatorial band. However, ToEs are unlikely to occur, even by the end of this century, over intra-tropical regions outside of the equatorial band. In contrast, annual mean temperature ACC have already emerged from the temperature ICV for most of the globe. Similar spatial patterns are observed at the seasonal scale, while a weaker ACC for boreal summer (Jun-Jul-Aug) precipitation and additional ICV for boreal winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) temperature translate to later ToEs for some regions. In addition, the uncertainty of ToE related to the choice of a SMILE is mostly less than 20 years for annual mean precipitation and temperature. However, it can be as large as 90 years for annual mean precipitation over some regions. Overall, results indicate that the choice of a SMILE is a significant source of uncertainty in the estimation of ToE and results based on only one SMILE should be interpreted with caution.