Horizontal Moisture Transport Dominates the Regional Moistening Patterns in the Arctic

Abstract

Along with the amplified warming and dramatic sea ice decline, the Arctic has experienced regionally and seasonally variable moistening of the atmosphere. Based on reanalysis data, this study demonstrates that the regional moistening patterns during the last four decades, 1979–2018, were predominantly shaped by the strong trends in horizontal moisture transport. Our results suggest that the trends in moisture transport were largely driven by changes in atmospheric circulation. Trends in evaporation in the Arctic had a smaller role in shaping the moistening patterns. Both horizontal moisture transport and local evaporation have been affected by the diminishing sea ice cover during the cold seasons from autumn to spring. Increases in evaporation have been restricted to the vicinity of the sea ice margin over a limited period during the local sea ice decline. For the first time we demonstrate that, after the sea ice has disappeared from a region, evaporation over the open sea has had negative trends due to the effect of horizontal moisture transport to suppress evaporation. Near the sea ice margin, the trends in moisture transport and evaporation and the cloud response to those have been circulation dependent. The future moisture and cloud distributions in the Arctic are expected to respond to changes in atmospheric pressure patterns; circulation and moisture transport will also control where and when efficient surface evaporation can occur.