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contributor authorNewman, Andrew J.
contributor authorClark, Martyn P.
contributor authorLongman, Ryan J.
contributor authorGilleland, Eric
contributor authorGiambelluca, Thomas W.
contributor authorArnold, Jeffrey R.
date accessioned2019-10-05T06:45:23Z
date available2019-10-05T06:45:23Z
date copyright2/26/2019 12:00:00 AM
date issued2019
identifier otherJHM-D-18-0113.1.pdf
identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4263318
description abstractAbstractIt is a major challenge to develop gridded precipitation and temperature estimates that adequately resolve the extreme spatial gradients present in the Hawaiian Islands. The challenge is particularly pronounced because the available station networks are irregularly spaced and sparse, creating large uncertainties in gridded spatial meteorological estimates. Here a 100-member, daily ensemble of precipitation and temperature estimates over the Hawaiian Islands for the period 1990?2014 at 1-km grid resolution is developed. First, an intermediary ensemble estimate of the monthly climatological precipitation and temperature is created, and those climatological surfaces are used to inform daily anomaly interpolation. This climatologically aided interpolation (CAI) method extends our initial ensemble system developed for the continental United States. This study demonstrates that direct interpolation of daily precipitation values is inferior to the CAI methodology, particularly over longer time periods (from years to decades). Daily interpolation performs better for short time periods (e.g., 1 month or less) or when the precipitation distribution substantially diverges from climatology. The CAI ensemble is able to reproduce observed precipitation and temperature patterns, including precipitation occurrence. Leave-one-out cross-validation results illustrate that the ensemble has 1) minimal bias for precipitation and temperature; 2) a mean absolute error of 2.5 mm day?1, 1.0 K, and 2.2 K for precipitation and mean and diurnal temperature, respectively; 3) a mean absolute error of 3.3 mm day?1 for the standard deviation of precipitation; and 4) nearly unbiased probability distributions across multiple thresholds of precipitation intensity. Additionally, the ensemble provides estimates of uncertainty across the distributions with increasing uncertainty for higher percentiles.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleUse of Daily Station Observations to Produce High-Resolution Gridded Probabilistic Precipitation and Temperature Time Series for the Hawaiian Islands
typeJournal Paper
journal volume20
journal issue3
journal titleJournal of Hydrometeorology
identifier doi10.1175/JHM-D-18-0113.1
journal fristpage509
journal lastpage529
treeJournal of Hydrometeorology:;2019:;volume 020:;issue 003
contenttypeFulltext


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