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contributor authorKolstad, Erik W.
contributor authorÅrthun, Marius
date accessioned2019-09-19T10:01:18Z
date available2019-09-19T10:01:18Z
date copyright8/7/2018 12:00:00 AM
date issued2018
identifier otherjcli-d-18-0016.1.pdf
identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4260666
description abstractAbstractArctic sea ice extent and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been shown to be skillful predictors of weather anomalies in the midlatitudes on the seasonal time scale. In particular, below-normal sea ice extent in the Barents Sea in fall has sometimes preceded cold winters in parts of Eurasia. Here we explore the potential for predicting seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in Europe from seasonal SST anomalies in the Nordic seas throughout the year. First, we show that fall SST anomalies not just in the Barents Sea but also in the Norwegian Sea have the potential to predict wintertime SAT anomalies in Europe. Norwegian Sea SST anomalies in spring are also significant predictors of European SAT anomalies in summer. Second, we demonstrate that the potential for prediction is sensitive to trends in the data. In particular, the lagged correlation between Norwegian Sea SST anomalies in spring and European SAT anomalies in summer is considerably higher for raw data than linearly detrended data, largely due to warming SST and SAT trends in recent decades. Third, we show that the potential for prediction has not been stationary in time. One key result is that, according to two twentieth-century reanalyses, the strength of the negative lagged correlation between Barents Sea SST anomalies in fall and European SAT anomalies in winter after 1979 is unprecedented since 1900.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleSeasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls
typeJournal Paper
journal volume31
journal issue20
journal titleJournal of Climate
identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0016.1
journal fristpage8197
journal lastpage8210
treeJournal of Climate:;2018:;volume 031:;issue 020
contenttypeFulltext


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