Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation to Prioritize TMDL Pollutant Allocations

Abstract

This study presents a probabilistic framework that considers both the water quality improvement capability and reliability of alternative total maximum daily load (TMDL) pollutant allocations. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation and Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques were used to assess the relative uncertainty and reliability of two alternative TMDL pollutant allocations that were developed to address a fecal coliform (FC) bacteria impairment in a rural watershed in western Virginia. The allocation alternatives, developed using the Hydrological Simulation Program—FORTRAN, specified differing levels of FC bacteria reduction from different sources. While both allocations met the applicable water-quality criteria, the approved TMDL allocation called for less reduction in the FC source that produced the greatest uncertainty (cattle directly depositing feces in the stream), suggesting that it would be less reliable than the alternative, which called for a greater reduction from that same source. The approach presented in this paper illustrates a method to incorporate uncertainty assessment into TMDL development, thereby enabling stakeholders to engage in more informed decision making.