Probabilistic Prediction of Postdisaster Functionality Loss of Community Building Portfolios Considering Utility Disruptions

Abstract

This study proposes a framework for the probabilistic prediction of building portfolio functionality loss (BPFL) in a community following an earthquake hazard. Building functionality is jointly affected by both the structural integrity of the building itself and the availability of critical utilities. To this end, the framework incorporates three analyses for a given earthquake scenario: (1) evaluation of the spatial distribution of physical damages to both buildings and utility infrastructure; (2) computation of utility disruptions deriving from the cascading failures occurring in interdependent utility networks; and (3) by integrating the results from the first two analyses, making a probabilistic prediction of the postevent functionality loss of building portfolios at the community scale. The framework couples the functionality analyses of physical systems of distinct topologies and hazard response characteristics in a consistent spatial scale, providing a rich array of information for community hazard mitigation and resilience planning. An implementation of the BPFL framework is illustrated using the residential building portfolio in Shelby County, Tennessee, subjected to an earthquake hazard.