Utilizing Probabilistic Downscaling Methods to Develop Streamflow Forecasts from Climate Forecasts

Abstract

AbstractStatistical information from ensembles of climate forecasts can be utilized in improving the streamflow predictions by using different downscaling methods. This study investigates the use of multinomial logistic regression (MLR) in downscaling large-scale ensemble climate forecasts into basin-scale probabilistic streamflow forecasts of categorical events over major river basins across the U.S. Sun Belt. The performance of MLR is then compared with the categorical forecasts estimated from the traditional approach, principal component regression (PCR). Results from both cross validation and split sampling reveal that in general, the probabilistic categorical forecasts from the MLR model have more accuracy and exhibit higher rank probability skill score (RPSS) compared to the PCR probabilistic forecasts. MLR forecasts are also more skillful than PCR forecasts during the winter season as well as for basins that exhibit high interannual variability in streamflows. The role of ensemble size of precipitation forecasts in developing MLR-based streamflow forecasts was also investigated. Because of its simplicity, MLR offers an alternate, reliable approach to developing categorical streamflow forecasts.