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contributor authorSiler, Nicholas;Kosaka, Yu;Xie, Shang-Ping;Li, Xichen
date accessioned2018-01-03T11:01:43Z
date available2018-01-03T11:01:43Z
date copyright9/22/2017 12:00:00 AM
date issued2017
identifier otherjcli-d-17-0177.1.pdf
identifier urihttp://138.201.223.254:8080/yetl1/handle/yetl/4246245
description abstractAbstractThe major El Niño of 2015/16 brought significantly less precipitation to California than previous events of comparable strength, much to the disappointment of residents suffering through the state?s fourth consecutive year of severe drought. Here, California?s weak precipitation in 2015/16 relative to previous major El Niño events is investigated within a 40-member ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations run with historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and constant radiative forcing. The simulations reveal significant differences in both California precipitation and the large-scale atmospheric circulation between 2015/16 and previous strong El Niño events, which are similar to (albeit weaker than) the differences found in observations. Principal component analysis indicates that these ensemble-mean differences were likely related to a pattern of tropical SST variability with a strong signal in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific and a weaker signal in the eastern equatorial Pacific and subtropical North Atlantic. This SST pattern was missed by the majority of forecast models, which could partly explain their erroneous predictions of above-average precipitation in California in 2015/16.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titleTropical Ocean Contributions to California’s Surprisingly Dry El Niño of 2015/16
typeJournal Paper
journal volume30
journal issue24
journal titleJournal of Climate
identifier doi10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0177.1
journal fristpage10067
journal lastpage10079
treeJournal of Climate:;2017:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 024
contenttypeFulltext


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