Development of Piecewise Linear Performance Models for Flexible Pavements Using PMS Data

Abstract

This study presents a method to develop piecewise linear (PL) performance models for pavement condition data in a pavement management system (PMS). These condition data are usually ordinal and have more than two severity levels. Ordinal logistic regression is conducted to derive probabilities of each individual severity level. The intersections of probability curves are identified as the breakpoints, which can be used to develop PL models. This proposed method was then applied successfully to develop four PL models, for interstates, U.S. routes, North Carolina routes, and secondary routes, using transverse cracking condition data of flexible pavements in a state DOT’s PMS. Results showed that the PL models reflected actual deterioration trends well and that the proposed method is robust.