Mean Parametric Monte Carlo Study of Fill Slopes

Abstract

Slope stability analysis has traditionally been performed using a deterministic approach. However, it has strongly been debated that the use of only the factor of safety in slope stability analysis does not explicitly account for all the uncertainties in soil parameters. Therefore, to investigate the effect of uncertainties in the stability of a fill slope, this paper uses the finite-element limit analysis methods to conduct a simple probabilistic-based analysis of two-layered undrained clay slopes. The results obtained show that although the recently developed stability charts for two-layered undrained clay may be convenient tools, the factors of safety calculated from the charts may not be sufficient. Particularly, it is shown that the probability of failure of this type of slope can be highly influenced by uncertainties in the soil properties. Various probabilistic charts based on different coefficients of variation in soil properties have been proposed in this paper. Based on this study, the recently developed charts for two-layered undrained clay slopes can be better applied. Additionally, this study also demonstrates the applicability of the finite-element upper and lower bound limit analysis methods to conduct probabilistic slope stability analyses.