Combined Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change in the Modeling of Future Groundwater Vulnerability

Abstract

Groundwater vulnerability assessment delineating areas that are susceptible to contamination from future scenarios has aroused worldwide attention. In this study, the authors (1) estimate future groundwater vulnerability in Hunan province, China, under urban-related land-use change and climate change scenarios; and (2) analyze the importance of related parameters to future groundwater vulnerability. The DRASTIC model [including seven parameters: depth to water table (D), net recharge (R), aquifer type (A), soil type (S), topography (T), impact of vadose zone (I) and conductivity (C)] together with an extra parameter, land-use patterns, was used to generate the map of groundwater vulnerability in future scenarios. The results indicated that vulnerability classes had an increasing trend from low to high vulnerability in the future scenarios. Hunan province may face high groundwater pollution risk in the future. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the depth-to-water table may be the dominant factor, and the land-use pattern was the most sensitive parameter on the predicted future groundwater vulnerability in Hunan province. Decision makers should identify the potential future groundwater vulnerability and take early steps to protect groundwater resources.