The Impact of Vertical Resolution on Fog Forecasting in the Kilometric-Scale Model AROME: A Case Study and Statistics

Abstract

he impact of vertical resolution on numerical fog forecasting is studied in detail for a specific case and evaluated statistically over a winter season. Three vertical resolutions are tested with the kilometric-scale Applications of Research to Operations at Mesoscale (AROME) numerical weather prediction model over Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport (Paris-CDG) in Paris, France. For the case studied, the vertical resolution has a strong impact on fog onset. The nocturnal jet and the turbulence created by wind shear at the top of the nocturnal boundary layer are more pronounced with a finer vertical resolution, and the turbulence close to the ground is also stronger with high vertical resolution. Local circulations created by the terrain induce different simulated processes during the fog onset. The fog is simulated as advection?radiation fog in the finer vertical resolution run and as radiation fog in the others. The vertical resolution has little impact on the mature and dissipation phases. A statistical study over a winter season confirms the results obtained in the fog case study. High vertical resolution simulates earlier onset, as well as longer-lasting and more spatially heterogeneous fogs. The high vertical resolution configuration simulates more fog events than are found at low resolution (LR); these fog events generally form north of Paris-CDG. No observations are available in this area, leading to many simulated but no observed fog events in the fine-resolution runs. The ceiling of low clouds is not well simulated by the numerical model no matter what vertical resolution is used.