Show simple item record

contributor authorDabernig, Markus
contributor authorMayr, Georg J.
contributor authorMessner, Jakob W.
date accessioned2017-06-09T17:37:07Z
date available2017-06-09T17:37:07Z
date copyright2015/12/01
date issued2015
identifier issn0882-8156
identifier otherams-88158.pdf
identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4231907
description abstractnergy traders and decision-makers need accurate wind power forecasts. For this purpose, numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are often statistically postprocessed to correct systematic errors. This requires a dataset of past forecasts and observations that is often limited by frequent NWP model enhancements that change the statistical model properties. Reforecasts that recompute past forecasts with a recent model provide considerably longer datasets but usually have weaker setups than operational models. This study tests the reforecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for wind power predictions. The NOAA reforecast clearly performs worse than the ECMWF reforecast, the operational ECMWF deterministic and ensemble forecasts, and a limited-area model of the Austrian weather service [Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG)]. On the contrary, the ECMWF reforecast has, of all tested models, the smallest squared errors and one of the highest financial values in an energy market.
publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
titlePredicting Wind Power with Reforecasts
typeJournal Paper
journal volume30
journal issue6
journal titleWeather and Forecasting
identifier doi10.1175/WAF-D-15-0095.1
journal fristpage1655
journal lastpage1662
treeWeather and Forecasting:;2015:;volume( 030 ):;issue: 006
contenttypeFulltext


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record